Having now read Wally Shaws article in the BBKA mag I must admit I was very shocked by his lack of success using Pagdens method. His 50% rate was very suprising. I can not remember a time I have used it and found it failed. I would suggest I have had 100% success with it. I read the article twice to try and understand what I was missing. It was only when I had a second look at his diagram that I understood where imho he has got it wrong. ( Puts tin hat on and prepares for incoming fire ) As he states in the article the method involves removing the queen and flying bees from the brood. But in the diagram he puts a frame of brood in the centre with the queen and flying bees. So basically has not done an artificial swarm. A swarm has no brood. No wonder he fails so often. I usually do AS with foundation or comb or a mix of both if I have it. I have never had a colony swarm, abscond or raise swarm cells after this. Unfortunately a lot of less experienced beekeepers will read that article and take it as gospel coming from such a respected beekeeper.
I think my zero % success with Pagden combined with your 100%..... averages out at Wally's 50%.
Classic Pagden always has queen on a frame of brood with flying bees. Maybe you have inadvertently found the secret with your local bees by not adding a frame, which is not a classic Pagden.
A swarm has no brood but a prime swarm consists of 75% of the hives nurse bees ....so whichever way you look at it no method of swarm control even come close to reproducing what a real swarm comprises of.